NFL Win Totals: 3 Teams We Love to Go Over This Season

Fans ready to start betting on the 2024 NFL season now have plenty of ways to do so without having to tackle the always-unpredictable beast that is preseason action.

Via a wide range of futures markets, sportsbooks offer the option to not only bet on who will win the Super Bowl, the AFC, the NFC and/or a given division, but how many games a particular team will win in 2024.

Newsweek’s 2024 NFL Betting Preview

The win total markets are always a safe way to back a team you think might be underrated, as all the team you’re high on has to do for your bet to hit is exceed a given number.

In 2024, win totals currently range from as low as 4.5 for the New England Patriots to as high as 11.5 in the case of the San Francisco 49ers and the Kansas City Chiefs.

When choosing the best teams to go over their win total, the most lucrative thing to do is find a franchise whose odds to exceed its total are as close to even as possible. Even if you like Chicago, for example, to go Over 8.5 Wins, the Bears’ win total odds are not exactly tempting at prices like -155 at ESPN BET.

Now, on to the teams worth a look:

• Indianapolis Colts — consensus 2024 preseason win total: 8.5
• New England Patriots — consensus 2024 preseason win total: 4.5
• Washington Commanders — consensus 2024 preseason win total: 6.5

Indianapolis Colts 2024 Win Total Odds

Indianapolis Colts 2024 Betting Outlook

The Colts have a chance to be one of the best under-the-radar teams in the NFL in 2024.

Indianapolis won nine games in 2023 despite only getting four healthy starts from talented then-rookie QB Anthony Richardson. In limited action, he completed 50-of-84 passes (59.5%) for 577 yards, three TDs and just one interception last year.

The No. 4 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft offers a ton of upside, but essentially has to re-do his rookie season after missing out on almost an entire year of esperience. The biggest concern for Indy — and the likely reason this team’s number is as low as 8.5 — is the fact that Richardson had an ankle injury, a concussion, and a season-ending shoulder issue in just five weeks of action in ’23. Still, if he’s healthy, Indianapolis has playoff potential.

Richardson’s upside, especially in an offense that should feature a healthy Jonathan Taylor at RB, is substantial. We’ve seen opposing defenses struggle to contain quarterbacks with Richardson’s mobility — particularly early in their careers — over and over again in recent years, from Cam Newton, Robert Griffin III and Colin Kaepernick to, more recently, Lamar Jackson.

On the other side of the ball, the Colts defense struggled in 2023 (24 points per game allowed), but four defensive linemen who had at least eight sacks a year ago return. Indianapolis also drafted promising pass rusher Laiatu Latu in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft.

For several reasons, at least nine wins is well within reach for this team as long as it can keep its young QB upright.

New England Patriots 2024 Win Total Odds

New England Patriots 2024 Betting Outlook

The Pats are fresh off an offseason overhaul after Bill Belichick’s illustrious tenure in New England ended with back-to-back losing seasons. New coach Jerod Mayo, offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt and defensive coordinator DeMarcus Covington have a ton of work to do to right the ship.

But last year’s Houston Texans were a great example of how quickly success can come for a good young coach and the right rookie quarterback.

Whether No. 3 pick Drake Maye is capable of a C.J. Stroud-level season or not — and the early reports from training camp indicate that’s probably not happening — Mayo and the Pats should have an upgrade under center. Between Maye and veteran backup Jacoby Brissett, the Pats should have stability at the position. If nothing else, it will be hard to be worse at QB than Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe were in 2023. That duo combined to throw 21 interceptions and just 16 TDs.

The real reason to buy a 5-12 or better season by New England, though, has to do with its defense. Mayo and Covington have both been with this team as defensive assistants since at least 2019. They provide valuable continuity for a group that has weathered several major injuries in recent seasons.

Last year, top pass-rusher Matthew Judon and talented 2023 first-round corner Christian Gonzalez both missed most of the season. If healthy, New England should have a top-10 defense and a real chance to reach five wins, even it remains a long way from contention in the AFC.

Washington Commanders 2024 Win Total Odds

Washington Commanders 2024 Betting Outlook

Why not roll the dice with another team that is expected to be relying on a rookie QB? (Actually, there are arguably several good reasons not to, but that’s not what we’re focused on here!)

One key difference between Washington’s Jayden Daniels and the 21-year-old Maye is that Daniels, 23, enters the league after four years as a starter, compared to Maye’s two at North Carolina before going pro.

Washington is coming off an ugly 4-13 season, but this franchise is almost always competitive. In fact, last year marked just the second time in the last nine seasons, dating back to 2015, when the team now known as the Commanders did not win at least seven games.

With a new owner, Josh Harris, replacing Daniel Snyder and an exciting rookie QB coming off a Heisman-winning season at LSU, the vibes around this team have improved dramatically.

New head coach Dan Quinn and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury, plus D-coordinator Joe Whitt, inherit a roster with some undeniable holes, but enough pieces to be dangerous, especially if Quinn can replicate what he did in Dallas. As the Cowboys’ DC from 2021-2023, Quinn led an aggressive bunch that did an excellent job forcing turnovers.

Two reasons to believe the Washington defense could wreak similar havoc are tackles Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen, who have both reached at least one Pro Bowl. Having veteran linebacker Bobby Wagner, a six-time All-Pro who played for Quinn back in Seattle, should also help solidify this defense.

The schedule, which features nine home games, is manageable. Home games against the Giants, Panthers, Titans and Falcons give Washington a real chance to go over 6.5 total wins with just three victories away from Commanders Field.

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