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Day 1 of the 2025 NCAA Men’s Tournament was light on heavy upsets and memorable last-second shots, but several games today promise to come down to the wire.
And it’s a good sign for anyone hoping for bracket chaos that two seeding underdogs (12-seed Colorado State vs. 5-seed Memphis and 11-seed UNC vs. 6-seed Ole Miss) are actually the betting favorites this afternoon.
Now, on to the picks! Like yesterday, we’re breaking our preview into two articles: one devoted to the day games and one devoted to every matchup that tips off after 6 p.m. (all times ET).
Note: betting odds below are courtesy of FanDuel as of Friday morning.
Baylor (9) vs. Mississippi State (8) Odds, Best Bets, Pick
TV: CBS, 12:15 p.m.
Betting odds:
- spread: BAY +1.5 (-102); MSU -1.5 (-120)
- moneyline: BAY +108; MSU -130
- total: 145.5 (o-110; u-110)
Oddsmakers see this as a good candidate to be the tightest game of the entire first round, and we agree that this is a coin flip. Both teams lost at least 12 games this year while playing tough schedules in the Big 12 and SEC.
But Baylor and MSU both boast at least a couple wins over tournament teams. The Bears took down St. John’s (2), Arkansas (10) and Kansas (7), while the Bulldogs swept rival Ole Miss (6) and beat Texas A&M (4).
This is Baylor coach Scott Drew’s 13th first-round game as head coach of the Bears, and their 10-2 record in such games is enough for me to take them to advance in a close one. The Over feels like the best play, though, as both teams are potent offensively.
- Best bet: Over 145.5 (-115 at FD) — 0.5 units
- Pick: Baylor
Robert Morris (15) vs. Alabama (2) Odds, Best Bets, Pick
TV: truTV, 12:40 p.m.
Betting odds:
- spread: RMU +21.5 (-110); BAMA -21.5 (-110)
- moneyline: HP +1600; BAMA -4500
- total: 166.5 (o-106; u-114)
Alabama is one of the deepest, most high-octane teams in the country, and when the Tide are rolling, there’s no number they can’t cover.
Even if this one is tight for 25 or 30 minutes, I still trust the Tide to eventually cover, even as massive favorites. Bama, for what it’s worth, recently beat Kentucky by 13 and 19 points, and also blew out Mississippi State by 38 (!) points in late February.
- Best bet: Alabama -21.5 (-102 at FD) — 1 unit
- Pick: Alabama
Lipscomb (14) vs. Iowa State (3) Odds, Best Bets, Pick
TV: TNT, 1:30 p.m.
Betting odds:
- spread: LIP +14.5 (-110); ISU -14.5 (-110)
- moneyline: LIP +810; ISU -1450
- total: 142.5 (o-115; u-105)
Atlantic Sun champ Lipscomb deserves some credit for taking on Kentucky and Arkansas in nonconference play back in November, but neither of those games were competitive (the Bison lost to Arkansas 76-60 and Kentucky 97-68).
ISU should come out with a chip on its shoulder amid questions surrounding its chances in this tournament without Keshon Gilbert. With that in mind, I’m willing to (somewhat reluctantly) lay a ton of points with the favorites in this one as well.
- Best bet: Iowa State -14.5 (-110 at FD) — 1 unit
- Pick: Iowa State
Colorado State (12) vs. Memphis (5) Odds, Best Bets, Pick
TV: TBS, 2 p.m.
Betting odds:
- spread: CSU -1.5 (-110); MEM -1.5 (-110)
- moneyline: CSU -105; MEM +104
- total: 146.5 (o-114; u-106)
It’s harder and harder to sneak up on anyone in this tournament, which is how we get situations like this one, with 12-seed CSU as the betting favorite over 5-seed Memphis.
Remember, 6-seed Clemson dominated 11-seed New Mexico a year ago as a 2.5-point ‘dog to show that sometimes these dangerous mid-majors aren’t quite all they’re cracked up to be. And VCU yesterday was another good example of an exciting mid-major not quite living up to the hype.
Still, Colorado State strikes me as the real deal after finishing the season on a 10-game winning streak, with all of those victories coming by at least 8 points.
I like the Rams in what should be an entertaining matchup against 29-5 (but shorthanded) Memphis. The Tigers are dealing with injuries to starting guard Tyrese Hunter (out) as well as his backup, Dante Harris (questionable).
- Best bet: CSU -1.5 (-110 at FD) — 0.5 units
- Pick: Colorado State
Mount St. Mary’s (16) vs. Duke (1) Odds, Best Bets, Pick
TV: CBS, 2:50 p.m.
Betting odds:
- spread: MSM +32.5 (-115); DUKE -32.5 (-105)
- moneyline*: +4000; -50000 (DraftKings)
- total: 140.5 (o-105; u-115)
Duke is (almost certainly) going to blow out Mount St. Mary’s.
Will the final margin be enough to cover this enormous spread? Who knows.
But I do trust Duke to lock up the Mountaineers, so take their team total under if you insist on having action on this one.
- Best bet: Under 53.5 (-110 at FD) — 0.5 units
- Pick: Duke
Vanderbilt (10) vs. St. Mary’s (7) Odds, Best Bets, Pick
TV: truTV, 3:15 p.m.
Betting odds:
- spread: VAN +4.5 (-115); SMC -4.5 (-105)
- moneyline: VAN +150; SMC -182
- total: 133.5 (o-115; u-105)
This thing will be ugly and slow if St. Mary’s has its way, that much is easy to predict.
How the Gaels will fare against an athletic (albeit 8-10 in conference play) SEC team is a fair question after their ugly first-round loss to 12-seed Grand Canyon a year ago.
I’m not sold on either of these teams, but I do think Vandy is good enough to keep this one close, if not pull the upset. I’ll take the Commodores to cover but the Gaels to advance.
- Best bet: Vanderbilt +4.5 (-115 at FD) — 0.5 units
- Pick: St. Mary’s
North Carolina (11) vs. Ole Miss (6) Odds, Best Bets, Pick
TV: TNT, 4:05 p.m.
Betting odds:
- spread: UNC -1.5 (-115); MISS +1.5 (-105)
- moneyline: UNC -128; MISS +106
- total: 155.5 (o-115; u-105)
The good news is this is another game that should be close. The bad news is it’s yet another tough one to find a good betting angle.
UNC struggled for most of the year but has played well over the last couple weeks, showing off the high ceiling that made them the No. 9-ranked team in the nation in the preseason AP Top 25.
But I think coach Chris Beard’s Rebels are physical enough to grind their way to a slight upset of the Tar Heels, who have looked great against bad teams but struggled against quality opponents this year.
- Best bet: Ole Miss ML (+106 at FD) — 0.5 units
- Pick: Ole Miss
Grand Canyon (13) vs. Maryland (4) Odds, Best Bets, Pick
TV: TBS, 4:35 p.m.
Betting odds:
- spread: GCU +10.5 (-106); MD -10.5 (-114)
- moneyline: GCU +450; MD -630
- total: 149.5 (o-115; u-105)
Derik Queen and the Terps look like a force to be reckoned with. Grand Canyon is a dangerous first-round opponent that plays at a breakneck pace (adjusted tempo of 71.6 possessions per 40 minutes).
Queen and fellow Maryland big man Julian Reese should have their way inside, though (check out the highlights of what Purdue and Michigan’s frontcourts did against mid-major foes yesterday for a taste of what GCU can expect).
This might not be a breeze from start to finish for the Terps, but I expect them to cover the number.
- Best bet: Maryland -10.5 (-110 at FD) — 1 unit
- Pick: Maryland
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