New data suggests a notable deceleration in the U.S. inflation rate, potentially offering some relief to both consumers and policymakers.
According to Truflation, a blockchain-based provider of real-time economic data, inflation has slowed to around 1.3 percent, having dropped to below the 1.5 percent mark at the start of March. By Truflation’s readings, these are the lowest levels inflation has reached since December 2020. It peaked at over 11.5 percent in June 2022.
Why It Matters
Trump’s campaign placed a heavy emphasis on the state of the U.S. economy and in particular inflation, painting his predecessors policies as an accelerant and vowing to bring prices for American consumers down “on Day One.” As a result, inflation has been framed a key touchstone evaluating the success of his economic agenda.
Alex Brandon/AP Photo
While inflation will need to slow further—reaching negative figures—for the price of goods and services to decline, significantly slowing inflation signals price stabilization, serving as a slight relief for concerned consumers and the Federal Reserve, which has been tasked with achieving a 2-percent inflation target.
What To Know
As outlined on its methodology page, Truflation’s real-time inflation metric relies on market price data from more than 30 commercial and public sources, capturing 13 million price points for goods and services at any moment. This separates it from the commonly consulted consumer price index (CPI), released monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which relies on periodic surveys, though this allows time to both collect and verify data, while also enabling analysis of inflationary trends rather than daily price changes.
According to the most recent BLS reading, inflation quickened in January, the CPI increasing 0.5 percent on-month compared to 0.4 percent in December. The core inflation rate, meanwhile, increased to 0.4 percent from 0.2 percent, rising to 3.3 percent from 3.2 percent on an annualized basis.
Despite Truflation’s encouraging data, concerns are mounting that President Trump’s dynamic tariff plans could result in even higher prices, as import costs rise and these charges are passed on to the American consumer.
What People Are Saying
Truflation wrote, via X: “Our data shows that inflation is falling. However, the effect of tariffs remains uncertain.” Attached was a poll in which 66 percent said inflation “will be controlled by 2025.”
Our data shows that inflation is falling 🇺🇸
However, the effect of tariffs remains uncertain.
Do you believe that US inflation will be controlled by 2025? 👇
— Truflation (@truflation) March 11, 2025
Following last month’s inflation reading, President Trump posted to Truth Social: “BIDEN INFLATION UP!”
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, speaking at a recent policy forum in New York, said: “Despite elevated levels of uncertainty, the U.S. economy continues to be in a good place. The labor market is solid, and inflation has moved closer to our 2 percent longer-run goal.”
He continued: “Looking ahead, the new Administration is in the process of implementing significant policy changes in four distinct areas: trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation. It is the net effect of these policy changes that will matter for the economy and for the path of monetary policy. While there have been recent developments in some of these areas, especially trade policy, uncertainty around the changes and their likely effects remains high.”
Spencer Platt/Getty Images
In late January, Vice President JD Vance said that the Trump administration would honor its campaign promise to bring down prices, but that this will “take a little bit of time.”
Speaking at the Economic Club of New York last week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the inflationary impacts of tariffs would be “transitory” if these resulted in a “one-time price adjustment.”
“Across a continuum, I’m not worried about inflation,” he added.
What Happens Next?
A government inflation reading is scheduled for early Monday morning, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes its monthly core inflation rate and CPI data for February.
