Kamala Harris Now Leads Donald Trump in National Polling Average

Vice President Kamala Harris is now leading Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump in a national polling average.

According to aggregation website Race to the WH (White House), which collated 128 national polls, Harris is at 47 percent, compared to the former president’s 46.9 percent as of Friday. Trump had been leading until July 30 when the Democratic candidate surpassed him in the polling average for the first time this year.

Election analyst and statistician Nate Silver‘s prediction model also puts Harris ahead with a very marginal lead, taking 44.8 percent, compared to Trump’s 44.1 percent, as of Thursday.

However, both prediction models give Trump the projected Electoral College victory, with Race to the WH putting the Democratic candidate at 256 electoral votes to the GOP’s 275.

Silver’s model shows that Trump has a 54.9 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, while Harris’ chances stand at 44.6 percent.

Despite Trump’s lead, Race to the WH’s model shows that his Electoral College advantage has narrowed in the two weeks since Harris became the Democrats’ presumptive nominee. In June, he was predicted to win 302 Electoral College votes compared to the Democrats’ 236.

Since launching her campaign two weeks ago, Harris has seen largely positive poll results. Overall, the polls indicate she has closed the gap on Trump compared to when Biden was on the ticket.

A poll conducted by Leger between July 26 and 28 showed Harris was leading Trump at 49 percent to his 46 percent in a head-to-head matchup. That represents a 4-point increase for a Democratic candidate since Leger’s June poll.

In another poll conducted by Morning Consult after Biden ended his reelection campaign, Trump was 2 points ahead of Harris, after a previous survey by the same pollsters put Trump four points ahead of Biden—46 percent to the president’s 42 percent.

Additionally, the vice president is shown leading in several key swing states that could determine the outcome of the November election.

A Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll conducted from July 24 to July 28 showed Harris ahead of her opponent on average in the swing states, holding a 1-point lead, beating Trump 48 percent to 47 percent.

Harris had the biggest lead over Trump in Michigan, 53 percent to his 42 percent.

She was also leading Trump in Arizona (49 percent to 47 percent), Nevada (47 percent to 45 percent), and Wisconsin (49 percent to 47 percent). Meanwhile, Trump was still up by 4 percentage points in Pennsylvania (50 percent to 46 percent), and the candidates were tied in Georgia at 47 percent.

The Race to the WH prediction model shows Harris leading Trump in Michigan (49.1 percent to 46.5 percent), Wisconsin (49.5 percent to 47.8 percent) and Nevada (45.9 percent to 45.4 percent). She is trailing Trump in Arizona (48.8 percent to 46.6 percent), Pennsylvania (48.1 percent to 47.8 percent) and Georgia (48.3 percent to 47.2 percent).