South Korea Martial Law: How Will North Korea Respond?

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol pointed the finger at North Korea and the opposition in his surprise declaration of martial law during an unannounced television address to his country on Tuesday night, December 3.

Yoon told South Koreans martial law was necessary to “safeguard a liberal South Korea from the threats posed by North Korea’s communist forces and to eliminate anti-state elements,” taking aim at the Democratic Party, his liberal opposition.

Han Dong-hoon, leader of Yoon’s conservative People Power Party, called the president’s declaration of martial law “wrong” and pledged to “stop it with the people” as protestors took to the streets. Parliament voted against martial law in a late night session.

The under-pressure president has struggled to deliver on his platform. His approval rating is its lowest since his inauguration and his party suffered a major loss in parliamentary elections to those he now accuses of harboring pro-North Korean sympathies.

With the shock declaration of martial law, and Yoon’s references to Kim Jong Un‘s North Korea, Newsweek asked experts how Pyongyang would respond. This is what they said.

Stephan Haggard, Lawrence and Sallye Krause Distinguished Professor Emeritus; Director Emeritus, Korea-Pacific Program; Research Director, Global Governance, UC San Diego

The declaration states that the measure was designed to counter “North Korean communist forces.”

But I have certainly not seen any evidence of forced movements on the North Korean side, meaning that this is McCarthyism: An identification of the opposition as an anti-state pro-North Korean force.

The likely North Korean reaction will be that the illegal clique in the South is arrogating power to itself, perhaps justifying Kim Jong Un’s recent decisions to treat the South as an enemy country; that is likely the framework for how North Korea will respond.

Gi-Wook Shin, William J. Perry Professor of Contemporary Korea, Director, Korea Program at Shorenstein APARC, Stanford University

I am sure North Korea will be watching the situation very closely and may issue a statement condemning the martial law.

Other than that, I don’t think they will take any immediate action. Anyway, I don’t think this will last for long—it will face national resistance, even within the military.

Marcus Noland, Non-Resident Senior Fellow, East-West Center; Executive Vice President and Director of Studies, Peterson Institute for International Economics

North Korea has its hands full in Ukraine. It will crank up its overt propaganda operations and covertly encourage its operatives and fellow travelers in the South to make noise.

Ramon Pacheco Pardo, Professor of International Relations, King’s College London; KF-VUB Korea Chair, Brussels School of Governance, Vrije Universiteit Brussel

In my opinion, North Korea will criticize President Yoon and will also suggest that South Korea is unstable. But I don’t think that it can cover this development in much depth given the nature of its own regime.